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Nexen earnings fall 86% October 28, 2009

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Calgary-based oil and gas producer Nexen Inc. reported an 86 per cent drop in third-quarter profit Wednesday.

It attributed the drop to lower production, downtime for maintenance and reduced sales volume.

Nexen earnings fall 86%

Maintenance downtime cut into production from Nexen’s Long Lake oil sands project.(CBC)

Net income came in at $122 million or 23 cents a share for the three months ending in September. That compared with $886 million or $1.68 a share in the same period a year earlier.

Nexen operates an oilsands project called Long Lake and explores, and produces oil in the North Sea, the Gulf of Mexico, Yemen and West Africa.

Nexen shares closed down 59 cents, or more than two per cent, at $23.40 on the Toronto Stock Exchange Wednesday.

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Great Recession? This time it’s different October 28, 2009

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Great Recession? This time its different

People gather outside a bank in 1933 during the Great Depression. (Reuters)

As the 80th anniversary of Black Monday approaches, comparisons have been made between the Great Depression that struck the world in the 1930s and the economic slowdown underway today.

A look at the facts, however, shows some subtle yet important differences between the two scenarios.

One key difference is the geographic range affected. While the Great Depression was certainly global in scope, North America was disproportionately hard-hit.

“I don’t think it could have been any worse among industrial nations,” Canadian economic history professor Joe Martin tells CBC News of the 1930s. “Canada suffered far worse than anyone, including the U.S.A.”

Great Recession? This time its different

In 1932, long line of jobless and homeless men wait to get free dinner at New York’s municipal lodging house. (Associated Press)

Canadian GDP per capita went down by 25 per cent, on average, during the Great Depression, he notes, and by 1933 more than a quarter of Canadian workers were officially unemployed. Between the stock market crash of October 1929 and the spring of 1933, Canada’s national income fell by almost half. Even then, the recovery was uneven, and the slump began anew in 1937. It wasn’t until 1940 that the economy began a sustained rally.

In Europe, the Great Depression wasn’t nearly as bleak. German GDP per capita declined by 17 per cent at its lowest point, and in the United Kingdom, GDP fell by only five per cent. It was during the Great Depression that the British economy surpassed the U.S. as the world’s largest, Martin notes.

Contrast that with the current situation 80 years on. The global economy is a lot more interconnected, and the pain is a lot more evenly distributed. A mortgage on a home in Scottsdale, Ariz., gets securitized and sold to investment banks across the world, spreading the pain of that real estate collapse across numerous countries.

The dust has yet to settle, but it’s already clear that the economic slowdown of 2008 and 2009 is certainly geographically widespread. With the notable exception of China (where GDP growth slowed to six per cent) and Australia, virtually every developed economy in the world experienced some sort of recession over the past year.

‘Canada suffered far worse than anyone, including the U.S.A.’?Economic history professor Joe Martin

Compared with double-digit declines throughout the 1930s, Canada posted three quarters of negative GDP growth, and the Bank of Canada expects the Canadian economy to emerge from recession during the current quarter.

“I’ve said from the beginning it will not be as bad,” Martin says. “I don’t think, when the final numbers are in, it will even be as bad as the early 1990s [recession.]“

The sectors most affected were also quite different, then and now. In Canada, much of the pain in the current recession has occurred in the battered manufacturing sector. The woes befalling auto manufacturers and other heavy industries have hit hard in Ontario, where the provincial deficit is forecast to soar to $22 billion this year.

In the 1930s, it was the resource-dependent West that bore the brunt of the pain. Saskatchewan’s gross domestic product shed some 75 per cent in 1930, Martin notes. Canada’s main export at the time was wheat, and as demand dried up, grain prices hit their lowest prices in more than 300 years. And the export prices of farm products, fish, lumber and base metals fell far more steeply than those of manufactured goods.

As a result, municipalities in the four westernmost provinces were unable to pay the interest on their debts, and Ottawa had to step in. No matter how the current economic slowdown shakes out, Canadian governments are a long way from defaulting on their debts.

Great Recession? This time its different

An unemployed man leans against a vacant store in 1935. (Reuters)

The differences don’t end there. Current economic problems have been pinned, in broad terms, on financiers creating obscure financial instruments that allowed them to take unnecessary risks. Terms such as collateralized debt obligations, asset-backed commercial paper, subprime mortgages and mortgage-backed securities have all been blamed for exacerbating, if not causing outright, the financial collapse.

In the Great Depression, Martin notes, the financial system was much more closely regulated. “Banks weren’t allowed in the mortgage market, for example,” Rotman School of Management professor Lawrence Booth tells CBC News. “And [they weren't] allowed into the insurance market either.”

Many financial firms collapsed, to be sure, and the survivors were much less nimble, but the economy eventually recovered. Governments and regulators today appear to be adopting that model, having already moved to put tighter controls on the industry to mitigate speculative activity.

“We can criticize Canadian bankers for being too cautious and conservative, but in the long run, I think you want your banks to be cautious and conservative,” Martin says.

In fairness, none of the actions governments and regulators took in the 1930s was enough to truly shake the economy out of its doldrums. It took the Second World War to do that.

Indeed, Canada emerged from the Great Depression quicker than the United States did in part because it joined the war effort sooner, Martin says ? one week after the United Kingdom did in 1939. The United States did not formally join the war until December 1941, after the attack on Pearl Harbor.

This current economic slowdown is still waiting for a catalyst to signal its end. Governments have pumped billions worth of stimulus spending from public coffers to try to pump up demand. Nobody knows, however, what the impact will be when those taps are ultimately turned off ? nor what ballooning federal deficits might do to the global economy down the line.

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U.S. home sales take surprise drop October 28, 2009

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Sales of new U.S. homes dropped by an unexpected 3.6 per cent last month, government data shows.

U.S. home sales take surprise drop

A sign indicates a cut price for a home in East Palo Alto, Calif., last year. After troughing in January, U.S. home sales have revived in recent months.(Paul Sakuma/Associated Press)

The U.S. Commerce Department said Wednesday that sales fell to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 402,000 from a downwardly revised 417,000 in August. August’s sales had been initially tallied at 429,000.

Economists surveyed by Thomson Reuters had expected a pace of 440,000 sales for September.

It was the first decline since March. The September sales total was off 7.8 per cent from a year ago, although it was up 22 per cent from the market’s January bottom.

It is still down more than 70 per cent from the peak of July 2005.

The median sales price of $204,800 US was off 9.1 per cent from $225,200 a year earlier. However, the median price ? half of homes sold for more, half for less ? was up 2.5 per cent from August’s $199,900.

The decline in the number of sales was driven by drops of nearly 11 per cent in the West and 10 per cent in the South. Sales rose 35 per cent in the Midwest and were unchanged in the Northeast, the Commerce Department said.

“Even though today?s report on new home sales disappointed expectations of continued improvement, the level of sales remains well above the trough of 329,000 set in January of this year,” RBC economist Josh Heller said.

The year-over-year decline does not alter the bank’s view that residential real estate will make a positive contribution to third-quarter economic growth, he said.

Tax credit expiring

The report reflects contracts to buy homes, not completed sales. Would-be buyers have had a harder time obtaining mortgages and getting properties appraised since last year’s credit crunch, which has made transaction closings take longer.

If deals are not completed before a Nov. 30 deadline, buyers are unable to take advantage of a tax credit of up to $8,000 for first-time buyers. That’s playing a role in the figures, economists suggest.

‘The pullback could be quite significant’?Brad Hunter, Metrostudy economist

The report “demonstrates the power of the first-time homebuyers tax credit,” said Bernard Markstein, senior economist with the National Association of Home Builders, which has been lobbying Congress to extend and expand the tax incentive. “We just haven’t gotten the economy back to the point where we can step back and say the housing market doesn’t need any more support.”

Congress is considering extending the tax credit through March 31 and gradually phasing it out over the rest of next year. “If they don’t extend it, then I think the pullback could be quite significant,” said Brad Hunter, chief economist with Metrostudy, a real estate research firm.

Critics, however, say many buyers would have entered the market anyway and call the credit a subsidy for people who don’t need it.

Low mortgage rates, the tax credit and more affordably priced homes have provided a lift to the housing market this year. Sales of previously occupied homes jumped more than nine per cent in September. That report measures completed sales rather than sales agreements.

The government counted 251,000 new homes for sale at the end of September, down almost four per cent from August and the lowest inventory in nearly 27 years. At the current sales pace, that represents 7.5 months of supply, flat for the second straight month.

With files from The Associated Press (more…)

4 fined $26M in B.C. Ponzi scheme October 28, 2009

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The British Columbia Securities Commission has imposed $26 million in penalties on four people it said ran a Ponzi scheme that victimized 800 people.

The BCSC released the ruling Monday against Hal (Mick) Allan McLeod, David John Vaughan, Kenneth Robert McMordie (also known as Byrun Fox), and Dianne Sharon Rosiek.

A commission panel ordered McLeod to pay an $8-million fine and assessed levies of $6 million against each of the other three. It said they distributed securities through Manna Trading Corp. Ltd., Manna Humanitarian Foundation, Legacy Capital Inc., and Legacy Trust Inc. The scheme collapsed in 2007.

‘A particularly aggressive and flagrant assault on the public’s confidence’?British Columbia Securities Commission

“Nothing strikes more viciously at the integrity of our capital markets than fraud,” the panel said in a release, “and this case represents a particularly aggressive and flagrant assault on the public’s confidence in our markets.”

The panel also ordered the four to pay back to investors the $16 million the commission says they made running the scam.

In its ruling, the panel said investors got back between $3 million and $5.6 million in the Ponzi scheme ? a type of fraud in which early investors get paid with money put in by later victims, giving the scam an appearance of legitimacy until it collapses.

The BCSC statement said there is “no apparent hope of recovering the rest.”

In addition to imposing the monetary penalties, the panel permanently banned McLeod, Vaughan, McMordie and Rosiek from involvement in securities markets and from being directors or officers of public companies.

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TSX plunges despite strong profit reports October 28, 2009

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Investors shrugged off positive earnings reports from Rogers Communications and Canadian Pacific rail on Tuesday, driving the Toronto Stock Exchange well into negative territory.

TSX plunges despite strong profit reports

A trader works on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange last month. Despite positive earnings reports, investors kept major North American indexes down on Tuesday.(Henny Ray Abrams/Associated Press

The S&P/TSX Composite Index closed at 11,053.5, down 181.34 points from Monday’s finish. The decline was broad-based, with all but two of the index’s eight sub-indexes trading lower on the day.

The lone exceptions were the energy and telecommunications sectors.

The benchmark Canadian index has shed 480 points in the last three trading days.

TSX plunges despite strong profit reports

Three-month stock chart for Rogers on the TSX.(CBC)

The Canadian dollar finished up .08 of a cent to 93.8 cents US after a stronger greenback pushed the loonie down about 1.3 cents US on Monday.

Rogers shares ended up $1.40 at $31.50 after the telecom company reported quarterly net income of $485 million or 79 cents a share, compared to year-earlier earnings of $495 million or 78 cents a share.

After adjustments, net income totalled $505 million or 82 cents a share, up from 73 cents a year earlier and well above analysts’ expectations of 54 cents per share. Revenue at the wireless division was up seven per cent, fuelled by growth in postpaid subscriptions attributed to the popularity of the Apple iPhone.

Canadian Pacific Railway Ltd. said that third-quarter net income rose to $195.4 million or $1.16 cents a share, up from $170.7 million or $1.10 cents a share a year ago. However, revenue fell to under $1.1 billion from more than $1.3 billion a year ago and its shares lost $2.45 to trade at $46.28 in the afternoon.

With files from The Canadian Press (more…)

EI claimants drop 2.4% in August October 28, 2009

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The number of people receiving employment insurance benefits fell 2.4 per cent in August, Statistics Canada said Tuesday.

The drop of 19,100 people was the second consecutive monthly decrease, following a 3.8 per cent decline in July.

EI claimants drop 2.4% in August

People looking for work search on computers at a Worksource office in Portland, Ore., in August. The number of Canadians receiving jobless benefits declined in August. As well, the average number of weeks spent collecting benefits is lower in Canada than in the U.S.(Don Ryan/Associated Press)

Regionally, the trend was broad-based, with declines coming in almost all provinces. Newfoundland and Labrador, Ontario, Saskatchewan and Manitoba had the largest overall decreases. Quebec and New Brunswick posted monthly increases.

There were 763,200 total beneficiaries in August, up much 52.5 per cent from October 2008, when Canadian employment peaked. In some places, such as Vancouver, Victoria, and the Ontario metropolitan areas of Sudbury and Kitchener, the number of people receiving EI benefits has doubled in the past year.

It’s not clear whether the August decline represents people returning to paid employment and thus no longer being entitled to EI, or how much of the trend can be explained by people simply running out of benefits but still remaining unemployed.

“People seem to be running in and out of unemployment as opposed to stuck in it forever.”? Avery Shenfeld, CIBC economist

Statistics Canada does not track such data nationally, but there are other ways of digging below the surface of the jobs picture.

“Not from this data, no, but by looking at the Labour Force Survey [due out later this month], you can disaggregate, on average, how many weeks people have been unemployed,” CIBC economist Avery Shenfeld told CBC News.

In that regard, Canada is doing fairly well. People typically spend 15 to 17 weeks on unemployment in this country. In the U.S., the figure is closer to 25 weeks, he said.

“People in Canada seem to be running in and out of unemployment as opposed to just stuck in it forever,” Shenfeld said.

The news is not all positive. The number of initial and renewal claims for benefits increased 8.2 per cent in August, to 298,300, after two months of declines.

The downturn in the labour market has affected young people the most.

In August, the number of people under 25 receiving EI benefits nearly doubled, up 94 per cent compared with August 2008. The increase was most pronounced for young men (up 114.5 per cent), while among young women the increase was relatively slower, at 61.9 per cent.

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Agrium warns of Q3 profit plunge October 26, 2009

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Agrium warns of Q3 profit plunge

Agrium 3-month TSX chart

Fertilizer producer Agrium Inc. warned Friday that its third-quarter profit will be 90 to 95 per cent lower than last year’s third-quarter results.

Agrium reported a profit of $2.31 US a share last year as high grain prices helped to bolster demand for fertilizers. A profit drop of 90 to 95 per cent would translate into earnings of 12 to 23 cents US a share.

The Calgary-based company blamed “significantly lower prices and margins” for all of the fertilizers it produces, especially phosphate and potash.

In a statement, Agrium said margins have been squeezed and its fungicide sales declined 40 per cent this summer.

It said U.S. customers are increasingly saying they’ll soon revert to their normal fertilizer application levels “particularly now that corn prices have increased again to well above historic levels.”

Agrium said it was well positioned for what it called a “strong recovery” in demand in 2010.

“If the wet weather in the U.S. continues and shortens the fall application season, it is expected to push fall nutrient demand into the spring of 2010,” the company said in a statement.

Agrium will provide final third-quarter financial results on Nov. 4.

Shares fall 7 per cent

Agrium shares were down $4.12 to $55.61 at the close of TSX trading Friday, but were still twice their 52-week low of $28.70.

Agrium’s profit warning followed similarly gloomy reports from other fertilizer makers, which have been hobbled by a global financial crisis as well as lower grain prices in the last year.

On Thursday, Saskatoon-based Potash Corp. of Saskatchewan reported third-quarter earnings that came in 80 per cent lower than last year’s as sales fell by more than two-thirds.

The world’s biggest fertilizer producer said low crop prices had slashed demand for crop nutrients like potash.

“The agricultural industry has not yet broken free of this uncertainty,” Potash Corp. CEO Bill Doyle told a conference call.

Potash Corp. shares closed at $105.84 in Friday afternoon trading on the TSX, down $2.24.

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Canadian dollar slides October 26, 2009

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The Canadian dollar continued its reversal Monday after a recent runup.

The loonie hit a two-week low to trade at 94.00 cents US in afternoon trading, down 1.07 of a cent. It had closed as high as 97.55 cents on Oct. 14.

Canadian dollar slides

The Canadian dollar hit a two-week low against the U.S. currency Monday. (Canadian Press)

The drop came after Bank of Canada Governor Mark Carney repeated late last week that the Canadian dollar’s rapid rise threatens to derail economic recovery.

Oil and gold also retreated after their recent gains. Oil was down $2.10 to $78.40 US in the afternoon, and gold fell $14 to $1043.40 US.

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Potash Corp. plans 800 more layoffs October 26, 2009

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The Potash Corp. of Saskatchewan says it will lay off 800 workers at three mines in the province.

When the layoffs were initially reported two weeks ago, they were expected to affect 700 people.

On Saturday, a spokesman for the fertilizer company confirmed that 800 layoff notices would be issued. Bill Johnson also said the layoffs would be temporary, lasting two or three months.

Workers at the Allan, Rocanville and Lanigan mines of PCS will get notices. Some people may be assigned to other jobs during the layoff, performing maintenance or working on mine construction.

This has been a difficult year for workers at the mines: there have already been two temporary layoff periods in 2009.

The latest round of layoffs is to begin in November and December.

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Desire for cheap products drives labour exploitation: group October 25, 2009

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An international watchdog for migrants has launched a campaign to get consumers to think about why some of the products they buy may be so cheap.

The International Organization for Migration has launched a website detailing facts and true stories behind the cheap stuff in supermarkets and department stores.

“The whole idea is to show people the part they may be playing in the use of trafficked labour,” Richard Danziger, head of the group’s global counter-trafficking program, said in an interview with CBC Radio’s As It Happens on Thursday.

“We think the main reason behind trafficking is the demand for cheap products and for cheap labour,” Danziger said.

The group’s website, buyresponsibly.org, will compile lists of suspect products and detail efforts to halt labour exploitation.

Danziger is hoping consumers will use the website the inform themselves and then put pressure on store managers by asking questions: “Do you know where your bananas come from? Can you be sure no trafficked labour was involved?”

Danziger said it’s a fallacy that prices would rise significantly if people were paid a living wage.

Research conducted by the group on agriculture in the southern U.S. showed the price of tomatoes would barely budge.

“The estimation was if everybody working on tomato farms was paid according to U.S. minimum wage and getting the benefits they should be getting, the actual price of a pound of tomatoes in the supermarket would only be one cent more.”

The organization estimates that hundreds of thousands of people are trafficked for cheap labour in both industrialized nations and emerging economies.

Cocoa production is among the worst industries for using forced labour. However, he added that vulnerable workers could be found in Canada, the U.S. and Europe in construction, catering and even in restaurants.

The organization said it has helped 20,000 migrants who say they were forced to work. He estimated there were 100,000 such workers in the U.K. alone.

“Governments are actually subsidizing entire sectors by tolerating exploited labour and not collecting taxes and not collecting social security,” said Danziger. “The consumer might be benefiting, certainly the employer is benefiting, and the state might be benefiting.”

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